The Solar radiation management and evaporative heat flux over West Africa
Insights from ERA5 Reanalysis, CMIP6 Models, and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51459/jostir.2026.2.1.0158Keywords:
Solar Radiation Management Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Evaporative Heat Flux Latent Heat Flux ERA5 CMIP6 SSP245 SSP585 ARISE-SAI West Africa Global Climate ModelsAbstract
This study investigates how Solar Radiation Management (SRM), particularly through Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI), influences evaporative heat flux—also referred to as latent heat flux (LE)—across West Africa. The region is highly sensitive to climate change due to its dependence on rain-fed agriculture, limited water resources, and frequent heat stress events. Understanding how geoengineering could affect surface energy and moisture exchange is therefore essential for future climate planning. We use a combination of datasets and climate modeling frameworks, including ERA5 reanalysis, CMIP6 simulations under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585), and results from the ARISE-SAI geoengineering experiments. The analysis covers four time periods: pre-industrial baseline, present conditions, near-future projections, and far-future projections. Across all datasets, a distinct latitudinal gradient in LE emerges: higher latent heat flux values occur in coastal, vegetation-rich areas, while significantly lower values characterize the drier Sahel. This pattern highlights the central role of surface moisture availability and land cover in determining evaporative heat flux. Under the high-emission SSP585 scenario, regional warming alters energy partitioning at the land surface, intensifying evaporative stress and increasing the likelihood of drought and agricultural losses. In contrast, SAI reduces warming, decreases extreme evaporative losses, and shifts LE values closer to those of the pre-industrial period. Cooling effects are strongest in humid coastal zones, where enhanced moisture availability supports a more pronounced response. Overall, the study suggests that SRM—if carefully managed and supported by emission reductions—could help reduce climate-related water and food insecurity in West Africa by stabilizing evaporative processes and moderating extreme heat conditions.
References
Abiodun, B.J., Olumuyiwa, A.O., Christopher, L., Pinto, I. & Temitope, S.E. (2023). Potential impacts of stratospheric aerosol injection on drought risk management over major river basins in Africa. Climatic Change, 169(31), 1–19.
Adejuwon, J.O. (2004). Impacts of climate variability and climate change on crop yield in Nigeria. Climatic Research, 6, 129–137.
Anyamba, A. & Tucker, C.J. (2005). Analysis of Sahelian vegetation dynamics using NOAA-AVHRR NDVI data from 1981–2003. Journal of Arid Environments, 63, 596–614.
Budyko, M.I. (1977). Present-day climate changes. Tellus, 29(3), 193–204.
Crutzen, P.J. (2006). Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections. Climatic Change, 77, 211–219.
Fabien, G., Dimitri, E., Paul, M., Julie, C., Julio, L. & Claire, C. (2022). Convective boundary layer sensible and latent heat flux lidar observations. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 4, 45.
Fabien, M., Eric, P. & Marc, C. (2019). Effect of land surface thermal patchiness on atmospheric boundary layer. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 14, 4–6.
Guha-Sapir, D., Hargitt, D. & Hoyois, P. (2004). Thirty years of natural disasters (1974–2003). Presses Universitaires de Louvain.
Hegerl, G.C., Crowley, T.J., Baum, S.K., Kim, K.Y. & Hyde, W.T. (2003). Detection of volcanic, solar and greenhouse gas signals in paleo-reconstructions. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(5).
Jeevankumar, C.M. & Suryanshu, C. (2018). Statistical studies of surface latent heat as pre-earthquake precursor. JETIR, 5(9), 2349–5162.
Keith, D.W. (2000). Geoengineering the climate: History and prospect. In: The Ethics of Nanotechnology, Geoengineering and Clean Energy, 207–246.
Khalil, S.A. & Shaffie, A.M. (2013). Performance comparison models of solar energy. International Journal of Energy and Power, 2, 8–25.
Khatibi, A. & Krauter, S. (2021). Validation of MERRA-2 meteorological dataset. Energies, 14(4), 882.
Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D.G., Wang, H. & Rasch, P.J. (2016). Geoengineering as a design problem. Earth System Dynamics, 7(2), 469–497.
Monteith, J.L. & Unsworth, M.H. (2013). Principles of Environmental Physics. 4th ed. Academic Press.
Oke, T.R. (1987). Boundary Layer Climates. Routledge.
Proctor, J., Hsiang, S., Burney, J., Burke, M. & Schlenker, W. (2018). Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering. Nature, 560, 480–483.
Rasch, P.J. et al. (2008). Overview of geoengineering using stratospheric sulphate aerosols. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 366(1882), 4007–4037.
Robock, A. (2015). Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. AIP Conference Proceedings, 1652, 183–197.
Singh, R., Simon, B. & Joshi, P.C. (2001). Estimation of surface latent heat fluxes. Indian Academy of Science, 110(3), 231–238.
Stull, R.B. (2017). Practical Meteorology. University of British Columbia.
Tilmes, S. et al. (2018). CESM1(WACCM) SAI large ensemble project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99(11), 2361–2371.
Trenberth, K.E., Fasullo, J.T. & Kiehl, J. (2009). Earth’s global energy budget. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(3), 311–324.
Yu, X., Moore, J.C., Cui, X. & Rinke, A. (2015). Effectiveness and regional inequalities of SRM scenarios. Global and Planetary Change, 129, 10–22.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Science, Technology and Innovation Research
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.